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<channel>
	<title>Ed Cottrell &#187; Economics</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.edcottrell.com/tag/economics/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.edcottrell.com</link>
	<description>musings of a conservative Texas attorney on law, faith, politics, technology, and life</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 14 Aug 2010 15:59:40 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
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		<title>Reading List</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2009/03/08/reading-list/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2009/03/08/reading-list/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 07:35:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Miscellanea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capitalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliott Wave Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/?p=1014</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A number of people have asked me lately what I&#8217;m reading on economics and the financial markets right now.  Truth is, I&#8217;m always reading such things, and no short list can even come close to covering the variety of material I try to read, from the scholarly and serious (e.g., Posner, Becker, Mankiw, etc.) to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A number of people have asked me lately what I&#8217;m reading on economics and the financial markets right now.  Truth is, I&#8217;m always reading such things, and no short list can even come close to covering the variety of material I try to read, from the scholarly and serious (e.g., Posner, Becker, Mankiw, etc.) to the popular and light.  That said, I thought my other readers might appreciate a list of some of what I&#8217;ve been looking at on the internet in the last few weeks, at least.  Without commentary, opinion, analysis, or even a particular ordering (in fact, the first list was intentionally randomized), here it is.  I express no public opinion on the accuracy, validity, merit, or usefulness of anything below; these are just links I have found interesting &#8211; in some cases because I think the contents to which I&#8217;m linking are totally wrong or even bordering on insane&#8230; but I think I&#8217;ll decline to say which ones.  Read the material for yourself, if you&#8217;re interested &#8211; it&#8217;s more likely to be useful, that way, anyway.</p>
<p>Sites or people with lots of information in general, some good, some bad, some possibly crazy:</p>
<ul>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.elliottwave.com/" target="_blank">Elliott Wave International</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://market-ticker.denninger.net/" target="_blank">Karl Denninger</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://evilspeculator.com/" target="_blank">The Evil Speculator</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.trendsresearch.com/" target="_blank">Gerald Celente</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/" target="_blank">Nouriel Roubini</a> (a/k/a &#8220;Dr. Doom&#8221;) (see also <a rel="nofollow" href="http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/" target="_blank">here</a>).</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/" target="_blank">Nassim Taleb</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Greg Mankiw</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/" target="_blank">Gary Becker and Judge Richard Posner</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Some interesting specific links:</p>
<ul>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data" target="_blank">Alternative data on key economic metrics</a>.</li>
<li>A <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-152a.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showing where things were last fall.</li>
<li> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf" target="_blank">Flow of Funds report from the Federal Reserve</a>.  The table on page 2 is especially interesting.  So is page 14, but page 15 is the best.  In Q3 2007, the federal government accounted for 14% of total borrowing in the United States; in most quarters it&#8217;s around that or lower.  In Q3 2008, it was 88.5%.  In other words, nearly all of the credit extended to anyone for an entire three month period was extended to the federal government.  Last year looks almost nothing like any other period in decades.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-chart-thats-worth-1000-words-2009-2" target="_blank">Where we may really be in the housing bubble.<br />
</a></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/841-The-Challenge-Before-America.html" target="_blank">The Challenge Before America</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/842-Told-You-So-Pensions.html" target="_blank">Denninger&#8217;s thoughts on pensions</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/printer/2008/12/18/What-Is-The-1-WRONG-Question-About-the-Real-Estate-Market.aspx" target="_blank">The second bubble in housing</a>?</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001pv.html" target="_blank">Optimism</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MTFjNGE3MGEyZTA4OWE1ZjRjMzE5NzBiNGMyZmZjNWY" target="_blank">The $2 trillion (in one go) bailout proposal</a>.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/07/14/%28NEW-Prechter-Video%29-What-were-you-watching-at-Dow-14,000.aspx" target="_blank">Bob Prechter on 1987 and the current market, back in 2007</a>, complete with charts and graphs.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/UK-interest-rates-cut-to-apf-14005122.html" target="_blank">All-time record-setting low rates from the Bank of England</a> (which is 315 years old).</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-finance/retirement/retirement-guide-for-20-and-30-somethings/" target="_blank">SmartMoney.com on market timing</a> and investing for 20- and 30-somethings.</li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_banking_system" target="_blank">The shadow banking system</a> (Wikipedia link, but just go through the article footnotes or search for that phrase and you&#8217;ll find ample substantive material on this one).</li>
</ul>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>An Economic Record for the Ages</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2009/01/09/an-economic-record-for-the-ages/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2009/01/09/an-economic-record-for-the-ages/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:46:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Miscellanea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/?p=981</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the Bank of England does anything for the first time &#8211; it&#8217;s 315 years old this year, after all &#8211; it&#8217;s worth noting.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/UK-interest-rates-cut-to-apf-14005122.html">the Bank of England does anything for the first time</a> &#8211; it&#8217;s 315 years old this year, after all &#8211; it&#8217;s worth noting.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>88 More Reasons&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/12/16/88-more-reasons/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/12/16/88-more-reasons/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Dec 2008 01:58:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/?p=975</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am glad to live in Texas, and glad I do not live in New York.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am glad to live in Texas, and <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2008/12/16/2008-12-16_gov_david_paterson_unveils_dire_new_york.html">glad I do not live in New York.</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Slope of Hope &#8211; We&#8217;re on it</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/12/15/slope-of-hope-were-on-it/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/12/15/slope-of-hope-were-on-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 05:20:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Miscellanea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliot Wave Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/?p=972</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My favorite new (but not new favorite) blog is Evil Speculator (tagline, &#8220;bent on market domination, one nefarious trade at a time&#8221;). It posted a fantastic and disturbing chart from Gold-Eagle. The chart is one of the best demonstrations I&#8217;ve seen of a concept called the &#8220;slope of hope.&#8221; The idea is that (in significant [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My favorite new (but not new favorite) blog is <a href="http://evilspeculator.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Evil Speculator</a> (tagline, &#8220;bent on market domination, one nefarious trade at a time&#8221;). It posted a fantastic and disturbing chart from <a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gold-Eagle</a>. The chart is one of the best demonstrations I&#8217;ve seen of a concept called the &#8220;slope of hope.&#8221; The idea is that (in significant declines) markets go down slopes of hope &#8211; long, bumpy slides in which optimism repeatedly kicks in early and causes dramatic, but short-lived and futile, rallies. In contrast, bull markets start by climbing a &#8220;wall of worry&#8221; &#8211; pessimism is so extreme near bottoms that most investors are late in realizing the worst is over.</p>
<p>In any case, <a href="http://evilspeculator.com/?p=2899" target="_blank">this chart correlating Great Depression DJIA readings with news clips is an invaluable reminder of where we likely stand</a>. Check it out.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>$8,500,000,000,000</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/12/02/8500000000000/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/12/02/8500000000000/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:52:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Miscellanea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/12/02/8500000000000/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wow, look at it go. For reference: this is only 8 days after the $7.4 trillion estimate and only 14 days after the $4.284 trillion estimate. That&#8217;s $4,216,000,000,000 in two weeks. If you really want a fright, keep reading. If we were to keep spending at this rate through the first 100 days of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/stories/2008/12/01/daily7.html">Wow, look at it go</a>.</p>
<p>For reference: this is only 8 days after the <a href="http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/24/7400000000000/">$7.4 trillion estimate</a> and only 14 days after the <a href="http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/18/4284500000000/">$4.284 trillion estimate</a>. That&#8217;s $4,216,000,000,000 in <em>two weeks</em>.</p>
<p>If you really want a fright, keep reading. If we were to keep spending at this rate through the first 100 days of the Obama presidency (149 days from now), the tab for the crisis would hit a whopping $53,370,285,714,285. That&#8217;s about 4 times GDP, 4 times the national debt prior to the crisis, and 21 times what the federal government receives in taxes each year. That would only be, oh, about $177,901 for every man, woman, and child in the country. Chump change.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>$7,400,000,000,000</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/24/7400000000000/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/24/7400000000000/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 15:26:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miscellanea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/24/7400000000000/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That&#8217;s what the Fed is pledging to &#8220;rescue the financial system,&#8221; according to Bloomberg.com. That&#8217;s 50% of 2007 GDP, or 288% of 2007 federal tax revenues. Makes my prior post sound look like a praise of good budgeting.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&amp;sid=arEE1iClqDrk&amp;refer=home">That&#8217;s what the Fed is pledging to &#8220;rescue the financial system,&#8221; according to Bloomberg.com</a>. That&#8217;s 50% of 2007 GDP, or 288% of 2007 federal tax revenues. Makes my <a href="http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/18/4284500000000/">prior post</a> sound look like a praise of good budgeting.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>$4,284,500,000,000</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/18/4284500000000/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/18/4284500000000/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:16:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capitalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liberalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Socialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/?p=950</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That&#8217;s what the so-called &#8220;financial crisis&#8221; of 2008 has cost the federal government directly&#8230; so far.* Wonder how that stacks up to other crises? CNBC has a slideshow showing the costs (inflation-adjusted) of some of the biggest government projects ever. There are many events not listed in that slide show, of course. Two of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/27719011" target="_blank">what the so-called &#8220;financial crisis&#8221; of 2008 has cost the federal government directly&#8230; so far</a>.* Wonder how that stacks up to other crises? CNBC has <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/27717424/" target="_blank">a slideshow showing the costs (inflation-adjusted) of some of the biggest government projects ever</a>.</p>
<p>There are many events not listed in that slide show, of course. Two of the most notable: the Civil War (<a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.history.navy.mil/library/online/costs_of_major_us_wars.htm" target="_blank">$60.4 billion in 2008 dollars</a>, for <em>both</em> sides) and World War I (<a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.history.navy.mil/library/online/costs_of_major_us_wars.htm" target="_blank">$253 billion in 2008 dollars</a>).</p>
<p>For comparison, $4.28 trillion is approximately <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=5&amp;ViewSeries=NO&amp;Java=no&amp;Request3Place=N&amp;3Place=N&amp;FromView=YES&amp;Freq=Year&amp;FirstYear=2006&amp;LastYear=2008&amp;3Place=N&amp;Update=Update&amp;JavaBox=no#Mid" target="_blank">31% of 2007 US GDP</a>. It&#8217;s also <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.heritage.org/Research/features/budgetchartbook/fed-rev-spend-2008-boc-C1-Federal-Spending-Is-Growing.html" target="_blank">167% of 2007 federal tax revenues</a>. How&#8217;s that for deficit spending?</p>
<p>You may bring your eyebrows back to earth now.</p>
<p>* Some of this money is in the form of loans. Many of these loans are to companies hemorrhaging cash faster than they can borrow it and are explicitly designed as relief against bad assets, however, and the crisis is hardly over. So, counting this money as lost is only wise.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The Only Graph You Really Need to Understand the Auto Industry&#8217;s Problems</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/16/the-only-graph-you-really-need-to-understand-the-auto-industrys-problems/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/16/the-only-graph-you-really-need-to-understand-the-auto-industrys-problems/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2008 22:09:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Miscellanea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capitalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/16/the-only-graph-you-really-need-to-understand-the-auto-industrys-problems/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s the best one-image summary of why the Detroit Three are in such hot water, and it&#8217;s on Michigan economist Mark Perry&#8217;s blog. (h/t Greg Mankiw).]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s the <a href="http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/11/cancer-on-big-three-29hr-pay-gap.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">best one-image summary of why the Detroit Three are in such hot water</a>, and it&#8217;s on Michigan economist Mark Perry&#8217;s blog.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/11/cost-differences.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">h/t Greg Mankiw</a>).</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Are Stocks Really A Bargain?</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/12/are-stocks-really-a-bargain/</link>
		<comments>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/12/are-stocks-really-a-bargain/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2008 05:32:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Miscellanea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliott Wave Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.edcottrell.com/?p=924</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Elliott Wave International asks, &#8220;Are stocks really a bargain?&#8221; If you believe your eyes, the answer is pretty clear. P.S. In case you were wondering what the current DJIA dividend yield is (click the link above to see why this is relevant), you can see that here.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Elliott Wave International asks, &#8220;<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/11/10/Are-Stocks-Really-A-Bargain-.aspx" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Are stocks really a bargain</a>?&#8221; If you believe your eyes, the answer is pretty clear.</p>
<p>P.S. In case you were wondering what the current DJIA dividend yield is (click the link above to see why this is relevant), you can see that <a href="http://www.indexarb.com/dividendAnalysis.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Ouch</title>
		<link>http://www.edcottrell.com/2008/11/11/ouch-3/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Nov 2008 06:07:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capitalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Stuff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Economy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Let&#8217;s all hope this, at least, does not repeat. It&#8217;s a miracle the American Dream has survived this long.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s all hope <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/11/tax-policy-during-great-depression.html">this</a>, at least, does not repeat. It&#8217;s a miracle the American Dream has survived this long.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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