Slope of Hope – We’re on it

My favorite new (but not new favorite) blog is Evil Speculator (tagline, “bent on market domination, one nefarious trade at a time”). It posted a fantastic and disturbing chart from Gold-Eagle. The chart is one of the best demonstrations I’ve seen of a concept called the “slope of hope.” The idea is that (in significant declines) markets go down slopes of hope – long, bumpy slides in which optimism repeatedly kicks in early and causes dramatic, but short-lived and futile, rallies. In contrast, bull markets start by climbing a “wall of worry” – pessimism is so extreme near bottoms that most investors are late in realizing the worst is over.

In any case, this chart correlating Great Depression DJIA readings with news clips is an invaluable reminder of where we likely stand. Check it out.